Steven Madden Ltd Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryFootwear & Accessories Beta (adjusted)1.11 Intrinsic Value $62.81median of 6 methods · middle span $36-$194based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $45.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 37% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.3B Enterprise Value $3.4B Shares Outstanding 72.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is successfully transitioning from a wholesale-heavy domestic footwear brand into a diversified, global, omnichannel fashion powerhouse. The strategic acquisition of Kurt Geiger in May 2025 has significantly accelerated direct-to-consumer (DTC) and international expansion, driving an 18% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2026. While organic wholesale footwear remains soft, robust DTC momentum (+83.8% in Q1 2026) and a 540 basis point expansion in gross margin to 46.3% demonstrate strong pricing power and brand equity. Management's proactive supply chain diversification away from China (targeting a 40% reduction in imports) directly mitigates tariff risks, supporting a resilient long-term earnings recovery story. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.00 Mean target$51.56 High · most bullish analyst$56.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Severe tariff increases on Chinese imports disrupt the supply chain before diversification efforts are complete, severely compressing gross margins. Integration issues with Kurt Geiger or a broader consumer spending pullback in the retail sector lead to flat organic wholesale growth and high promotional activity, dragging fiscal 2026 EPS below $1.80. Base CaseCentral scenario The integration of Kurt Geiger continues smoothly, driving high-single-digit organic DTC growth and expanding international market share. Consolidated revenues grow by 10% to 12% in fiscal 2026, in line with raised management guidance, while gross margins stabilize in the mid-40s as apparel investments begin to scale. Diluted EPS meets the guidance range of $2.00 to $2.10. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |