Sterling Infrastructure Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEngineering & Construction Beta (adjusted)1.59 Intrinsic Value $570.88median of 6 methods · middle span $177-$2,216based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $505.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $15.5B Enterprise Value $15.3B Shares Outstanding 31.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend23 Dec 1998 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sterling entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 90%, organic growth was approximately 50%, signed backlog reached $4.33 billion, combined backlog reached $5.62 billion, and more than 90% of E-Infrastructure backlog related to mission-critical projects. The favorable data-center, semiconductor and advanced-manufacturing pipeline supports a positive long-term view. A Hold is appropriate pending a primary-source valuation anchor because acquisition integration, concentration in large mission-critical projects, and continued weakness in residential construction create meaningful execution risk despite the strong outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$754.00 Mean target$905.33 High · most bullish analyst$1,000.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $754.0018% Large mission-critical awards convert more slowly than expected, organic book-to-burn falls below 1.0, acquisition integration strains execution, and residential weakness persists. Those conditions would reduce backlog visibility and challenge the durability of the current growth trajectory. Base CaseCentral scenario $905.3358% Matches the consensus meanSterling converts its record backlog at a measured pace, with E-Infrastructure remaining the principal growth engine while Transportation resources continue shifting toward higher-return work and Building Solutions remains constrained by housing affordability. Bull CaseUpside scenario $1,000.0024% Sustained data-center, semiconductor and advanced-manufacturing awards keep book-to-burn above 1.0, preserve a high mission-critical backlog mix and convert the expanding opportunity pool into additional organic growth. Successful integration of CEC and Stone Ridge adds capabilities without weakening execution. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |