Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

STERIS entered fiscal 2027 with resilient operating momentum: first-quarter revenue increased 7%, constant-currency organic revenue increased 6%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 11% to $2.59. Management maintained fiscal 2027 expectations for 7%-8% reported revenue growth, 6%-7% constant-currency organic growth and adjusted diluted EPS of $11.10-$11.30. These results support a durable growth thesis tied to procedure volumes and infection-prevention demand. The balanced Hold view reflects execution risk around tariffs, restructuring and a large North Carolina capacity investment.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$232.00
Mean target$263.13
High · most bullish analyst$280.00
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$232.0019%

Procedure growth moderates or customer capital spending weakens while tariff, inflation, restructuring and major-project costs pressure margins and cash conversion. Organic growth falls below the 6% fiscal 2027 guidance floor or adjusted EPS falls below $11.10.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$263.1358%
Matches the consensus mean

STERIS delivers approximately within its maintained fiscal 2027 ranges of 7%-8% reported revenue growth, 6%-7% constant-currency organic growth and $11.10-$11.30 adjusted diluted EPS.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$280.0023%

Procedure volumes and demand across STERIS's diversified customer base remain strong, organic growth finishes above the fiscal 2027 guidance range, and operating leverage produces adjusted EPS above management's range while the new formulated-chemistries capacity strengthens long-term supply and growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • Fiscal 2026 revenue from continuing operations increased 9% to $5.9 billion, including 7% constant-currency organic growth.
  • Fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue increased 7% to $1.5 billion, constant-currency organic growth was 6%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 11% to $2.59.
  • Management maintained fiscal 2027 guidance for 7%-8% reported revenue growth, 6%-7% constant-currency organic growth and adjusted diluted EPS of $11.10-$11.30.
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Key Investment Risks
  • Failure to sustain at least the 6% lower bound of fiscal 2027 constant-currency organic-growth guidance would weaken the current operating thesis.
  • Tariff and inflation costs could offset pricing and operating leverage, limiting expected earnings growth.
  • The North Carolina formulated-chemistries investment and associated restructuring increase capital intensity and execution risk; fiscal 2027 capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $450 million.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.