StepStone Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

StepStone Group Inc

STEPNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management

Beta (adjusted)1.18

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $44.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $5.8B

Enterprise Value $5.3B

Shares Outstanding 129.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

StepStone Group Inc. (STEP) continues to demonstrate robust secular growth driven by strong capital formation and record fee-related earnings (FRE), particularly within its private wealth channel. Despite GAAP net losses driven by non-cash fair value adjustments of profits interests, the underlying cash-generating power of the business remains highly attractive. The firm's asset-light advisory and customized solutions model positions it as a key beneficiary of the ongoing institutional and retail shift toward private markets.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$56.00

Mean target$70.38

High · most bullish analyst$92.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$56.0020%

A prolonged macroeconomic slowdown or high interest rate environment dampens institutional allocations to private markets and slows down realizations. Private wealth subscriptions decelerate significantly, and fee compression reduces the blended management fee rate below 60 basis points.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$70.3850%

Matches the consensus mean

StepStone maintains steady institutional fundraising and consistent private wealth inflows of $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion per quarter. Fee-related earnings grow at a double-digit pace, supported by stable blended management fee rates around 64 basis points, offsetting near-term softness in performance-related realizations.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$92.0030%

Accelerated retail adoption of private markets via StepStone Private Wealth leads to sustained quarterly subscriptions exceeding $2.5 billion. This high-margin retail flow, combined with a rebound in global transaction activity, drives a sharp recovery in realized performance fees and expands the FRE margin beyond 40%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record fee-related earnings (FRE) of $105 million in Q4 FY26, up 12% year-over-year, demonstrating strong core profitability.
Exceptional momentum in the private wealth channel, capturing $2.3 billion in new subscriptions during Q4 FY26 alone.
Robust capital formation with nearly $14 billion raised in Q4 FY26, bringing total capital responsibility to $885 billion.

Key Investment Risks

GAAP earnings volatility due to non-cash fair value adjustments of StepStone Private Wealth profits interests.
Dependence on transaction and realization activity for performance-related earnings, which remain sensitive to capital market conditions.
Potential fee compression or moderation in retroactive fees, as seen in the slight decline of the blended management fee rate to 64 basis points.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained decline in quarterly private wealth subscriptions below $1.0 billion.
A material drop in the blended management fee rate below 60 basis points.
Persistent institutional outflows or a freeze in the private markets fundraising environment.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.