Stem Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryElectrical Components & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.34 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $4.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $39.2M Enterprise Value $184.8M Shares Outstanding 8.9M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Stem, Inc. is executing a critical strategic pivot away from low-margin battery hardware resales toward high-margin software and services, primarily driven by its PowerTrack platform. While this transition has significantly improved gross margins (GAAP gross margin up to 38% and non-GAAP gross margin up to 52% in Q1 2026) and delivered positive adjusted EBITDA, it has also resulted in near-term revenue declines. The company's financial health is rated as fair, and it is not expected to achieve GAAP profitability in fiscal 2026. Given the execution risks associated with the software-centric model and the reliance on a second-half ramp-up in battery resales to meet full-year guidance, a Hold recommendation is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.50 Mean target$12.00 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The resumption of battery hardware resales in the second half of 2026 faces supply chain or project financing delays, causing Stem to miss its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. High capital intensity and slow software conversion keep operating cash flow negative, raising liquidity concerns and forcing dilutive capital raises. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully achieves its full-year 2026 guidance, with total revenue reaching $140M-$190M, driven by a resumption of battery hardware resales in H2 2026 and steady growth in PowerTrack ARR. Non-GAAP gross margins stabilize in the 40%-50% range, and adjusted EBITDA meets the guided $10M-$15M. Operating cash flow turns positive at $0-$10M. Bull CaseUpside scenario The software-led pivot successfully drives high-margin recurring revenue, expanding non-GAAP gross margins above 50% and accelerating ARR growth. This transition, combined with sustained operational cost discipline and the integration of raicoon's automated fault detection, allows Stem to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA and rerate from a distressed project vendor to a high-value software control layer. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |