Stellantis N.V Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $4.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $17.7B Shares Outstanding 3.8B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend23 Apr 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Stellantis showed tangible recovery in Q2 2026: net revenue increased 13% year over year, the first-half adjusted operating income margin reached 2.1%, and Q2 industrial free cash flow was €1.0 billion. The recovery remains early, however, because Enlarged Europe posted a negative 0.6% adjusted operating margin, full-year guidance still calls for only a low-single-digit margin, tariff headwind is estimated at €1.0-€1.2 billion, and second-half performance is expected to be weighted toward Q4. FaSTLAne 2030 provides material upside through a 7% group margin, €6 billion of industrial free cash flow and a €6 billion annual cost-reduction run rate, but the gap between current performance and those targets leaves substantial execution risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.00 Mean target$6.98 High · most bullish analyst$11.06 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.0023% Tariff costs exceed the company's estimated range, European losses persist, and new-product execution fails to sustain North American momentum. Delayed cost savings or failure to produce positive industrial free cash flow in 2027 would materially weaken confidence in FaSTLAne 2030. Base CaseCentral scenario $6.9858% Matches the consensus meanRevenue and cash flow continue improving, but 2026 profitability remains in the low-single-digit range and Europe recovers gradually. The long-term plan remains achievable but not yet sufficiently de-risked. Bull CaseUpside scenario $11.0619% North American launches sustain volume and share recovery, Enlarged Europe turns profitable, and the Value Creation Program delivers most of its targeted savings. This would put Stellantis on a credible path toward its 2030 targets of €190 billion revenue, a 7% adjusted operating margin and €6 billion of industrial free cash flow. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |