State Street Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)1.27 Intrinsic Value $98.02median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $174.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 44% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $48B Shares Outstanding 279.4M diluted Next Earnings Date16 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary State Street entered the second half of 2026 with record custody and managed assets, strong operating leverage, a raised revenue outlook and a higher quarterly dividend. These strengths support durable earnings and capital returns, but the August 28 official closing quote of $193.33 already discounts substantial execution. A Hold is therefore appropriate: continued fee growth and margin delivery can support moderate appreciation, while market-sensitive asset levels, elevated investment spending, regulatory capital requirements and execution of the planned Latin American acquisition constrain risk-adjusted upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$150.00 Mean target$199.50 High · most bullish analyst$215.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $150.0019% Lower equity and fixed-income market levels reduce custody and managed assets, fee growth falls below the 2026 outlook, operating leverage reverses, or regulatory and integration issues delay the planned Latin American expansion. The price target represents a downside stress scenario rather than a published analyst target. Base CaseCentral scenario $199.5058% Matches the consensus meanState Street broadly delivers its raised 2026 outlook, maintains positive operating leverage and preserves capital distributions, but valuation expansion is limited after the shares reached $193.33 on August 28. Bull CaseUpside scenario $235.0023% Record asset levels translate into sustained servicing, management and markets revenue; fee revenue and net interest income reach or exceed the upper ends of management's 2026 ranges; pre-tax margin progresses toward the medium-term 35% objective; and the Latin American transaction advances without material delay. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |