Starz Entertainment Corp Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryEntertainment Beta (adjusted)1.99 Intrinsic Value $14.69median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 36% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $391.3M Enterprise Value $946.8M Shares Outstanding 17.1M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary STARZ Entertainment Corp. (STRZ) has successfully completed its separation from Lionsgate, returning to its roots as a standalone public company focused on premium subscription video services. The company has profitably transitioned from a linear television model to a digital-first footprint, with approximately 70% of its revenue and subscriber base now driven by OTT platforms. While STARZ delivers positive operating cash flow and has accelerated its timeline to achieve a 20% Adjusted OIBDA margin to the second half of 2027, it faces structural headwinds from a contracting traditional linear television landscape and high leverage (3.1x Adjusted OIBDA leverage as of Q1 2026). A Hold recommendation is warranted as the market monitors its ability to sustain OTT subscriber growth, manage its $625.1 million debt load, and execute its standalone infrastructure transition. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.00 Mean target$30.33 High · most bullish analyst$45.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario In the bear case, cord-cutting in the traditional linear segment accelerates faster than OTT gains can offset, leading to top-line contraction. Increased content production costs and intense streaming competition compress margins, delaying the 20% Adjusted OIBDA margin target. High leverage remains sticky above 3.0x, and standalone IT transition costs exceed expectations, putting pressure on the stock price. Base CaseCentral scenario In the base case, STARZ maintains its domestic OTT subscriber base near 12.7 million and successfully offsets linear declines through targeted content offerings and strategic bundling partnerships. The company achieves its accelerated 20% Adjusted OIBDA margin target by H2 2027 and gradually deleverages toward its 2.7x target by year-end 2026, supported by steady unlevered free cash flow generation of $80 million to $120 million. Bull CaseUpside scenario EV of 921M values content library at 0.7x revenue - potential M&A target for streaming consolidators needing premium content. EBITDA of 588M TTM shows underlying content value despite GAAP losses - 1.6x EV/EBITDA is distressed pricing. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |