Starwood Property Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Mortgage Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $16.18median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $13.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5B Enterprise Value $26.7B Shares Outstanding 380.5M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Starwood Property Trust (STWD) is upgraded to a constructive Buy/Strong Buy outlook due to its multi-cylinder platform resilience, deep discount to undepreciated book value, and robust 11.3% dividend yield. While Q1 2026 distributable earnings of $0.39 per share temporarily missed estimates due to cash drag and net lease scaling, underlying fundamentals remain strong with an improved portfolio risk rating of 2.9. Proactive balance sheet optimization, including a massive $1.5 billion office loan portfolio sale and a $400 million share buyback authorization, positions the company for a strong valuation recovery in the second half of 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.00 Mean target$19.94 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $17.0015% Persistent high interest rates and commercial real estate headwinds lead to further downgrades in the remaining multifamily and office loan books. Cash drag from legacy assets continues to dilute earnings, forcing the board to re-evaluate its dividend payout policy. Base CaseCentral scenario $19.9460% Matches the consensus meanSTWD successfully stabilizes its distributable earnings back toward $0.47-$0.48 per share as cash drag dissipates and the net lease business optimizes. The company maintains its stable $0.48 quarterly dividend, and the stock recovers to trade near its undepreciated book value of ~$19.00. Bull CaseUpside scenario $21.0025% Rapid redeployment of liquidity from the resolution of approximately $900 million of legacy assets by the end of 2026 into higher-spread infrastructure and commercial lending opportunities, combined with swift scaling of the net lease platform, drives distributable earnings well above the $0.48 quarterly dividend. The stock trades up to its historical premium relative to book value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |