Starbucks Corporation Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)0.98 Intrinsic Value $48.02median of 5 methods · middle span $43-$80based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $94.88Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 49% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $108.2B Enterprise Value $118B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Starbucks' turnaround has progressed from traffic stabilization to measurable sales and margin improvement: fiscal third-quarter global comparable sales rose 7.9%, comparable transactions increased 4.2%, and non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 14.4%. The raised fiscal 2026 outlook and fiscal 2028 framework support a constructive medium-term view. A balanced recommendation remains appropriate because the recovery still depends on sustaining traffic gains, converting labor and coffeehouse investments into durable operating leverage, executing a materially larger store pipeline, and managing commodity, tariff and restructuring pressures. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$81.00 Mean target$112.23 High · most bullish analyst$143.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $81.0021% Traffic momentum fades below the company's long-term comparable-sales framework, customer-service investments fail to generate sufficient throughput or frequency, and elevated input, labor and restructuring costs prevent durable margin recovery. Store expansion then adds execution and capital pressure without commensurate unit economics. Base CaseCentral scenario $112.2356% Matches the consensus meanComparable-store growth normalizes from the strong fiscal third-quarter level but remains positive, fiscal 2026 guidance is achieved, and operating leverage gradually offsets labor, coffee and transformation costs. Fiscal 2028 results land near the midpoint of management's margin and EPS framework. Bull CaseUpside scenario $143.0023% Back to Starbucks execution produces sustained transaction-led comparable growth, Green Apron Service preserves sub-four-minute peak throughput, loyalty and afternoon innovation deepen visit frequency, and the more asset-light international model accelerates expansion. Operating margin reaches the upper half of the fiscal 2028 framework while EPS approaches or exceeds the top of management's range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |