Stanley Black & Decker Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Stanley Black & Decker Inc

SWKNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTools & Accessories

Beta (adjusted)1.12

Intrinsic Value $88.33median of 6 methods · middle span $80-$121based on filings through 4 Jul 2026

Market Price $89.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $13.5B

Enterprise Value $17.7B

Shares Outstanding 151.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend8 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Stanley Black & Decker's operating recovery strengthened in the second quarter of 2026: organic revenue increased 3%, adjusted gross margin reached 33.7%, adjusted EPS was $1.57, and quarterly free cash flow was $698.2 million. The CAM divestiture enabled $1.7 billion of debt reduction, while the company repurchased $250 million of shares and raised its FY2026 adjusted-EPS and free-cash-flow guidance. The quality of the improvement nevertheless requires monitoring because approximately 250 basis points of second-quarter gross-margin benefit and about $0.17 of EPS came from net tariff refunds, while first-quarter Tools & Outdoor organic sales declined 1% amid North American retail softness. A Hold balances improving underlying productivity, cash generation, deleveraging, dividend continuity, and capital returns against cyclical demand, tariff, execution, and normalization risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$90.00

Mean target$99.36

High · most bullish analyst$110.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$90.0019%

North American retail softness returns, organic growth falls to zero or below, and the unusually strong second-quarter margin recedes as tariff-refund benefits prove nonrecurring. Adjusted EPS or free cash flow falls below management's guidance floor, limiting further repurchases and weakening evidence that the transformation has produced durable earnings power.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$99.3658%

Matches the consensus mean

The company delivers within its $5.20-$5.80 adjusted-EPS and $600-$800 million free-cash-flow guidance ranges. Organic growth stays modestly positive, productivity offsets most inflation and tariff pressures, and CAM proceeds leave the balance sheet stronger.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$110.0023%

Organic growth remains positive after the second quarter's 3% increase, productivity and favorable mix preserve a substantial portion of the margin improvement after tariff-refund benefits normalize, and free cash flow reaches the upper end of the $600-$800 million FY2026 range. The strengthened balance sheet and remaining authorization support additional repurchases without compromising the dividend or growth investment.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter organic revenue increased 3%, with Tools & Outdoor organic growth of 3% and North American Tools & Outdoor organic growth of 4%.
Second-quarter adjusted gross margin expanded to 33.7%, while adjusted Tools & Outdoor segment margin reached 11.8%.
Management raised and tightened FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance to $5.20-$5.80 and raised free-cash-flow guidance to $600-$800 million.
The CAM divestiture supported $1.7 billion of second-quarter debt reduction, and the company repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares for $250 million.
The issuer reports 149 consecutive years of annual dividend payments and annual dividend increases in each of the past 58 years.

Key Investment Risks

Approximately 250 basis points of second-quarter gross-margin benefit and about $0.17 of EPS came from net tariff refunds, making normalized profitability lower than the headline results imply.
First-quarter Tools & Outdoor organic sales declined 1%, including a 2% decline in North America, demonstrating continued sensitivity to retail and end-market demand.
The portfolio and operating model remain in transition following the CAM divestiture, footprint actions, plant closures, restructuring, and the licensing transition for gas walk-behind outdoor products.
Tariffs, raw-material availability, inflation, foreign exchange, competitive pricing, customer concentration, and construction or remodeling demand can materially affect results.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.