StandardAero Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

StandardAero Inc

SARONYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value $40.01median of 6 methods · middle span $32-$112based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $21.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 89% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+89%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $7B

Enterprise Value $9.2B

Shares Outstanding 333M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date1 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Operating momentum is favorable: StandardAero raised FY2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance after Q2 adjusted EBITDA increased 12.3% and margin reached 14.4%. LEAP and CFM56 DFW profitability and new commercial and military awards strengthen the medium-term demand case. The balanced rating reflects first-half cash consumption, 2.6x net leverage, unresolved material weaknesses in financial reporting controls, supply-chain exposure and customer/OEM concentration.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$30.00

Mean target$35.88

High · most bullish analyst$42.40

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$30.0019%

Parts availability, labor and working-capital requirements constrain throughput and cash conversion; Component Repair Services mix remains unfavorable; or execution on growth platforms weakens. Results fall below the lower ends of the raised revenue, adjusted EBITDA or adjusted free-cash-flow ranges, while leverage or control-remediation concerns persist.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$35.8856%

Matches the consensus mean

StandardAero delivers within its raised FY2026 ranges as commercial and business-aviation demand offsets uneven military timing and the removal of low-margin pass-through revenue. Margin benefits from productivity and growth-program learning, while cash generation remains weighted toward the second half.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$42.4025%

Commercial aftermarket demand remains robust, LEAP and CFM56 DFW continue improving after reaching profitability, and recently announced LEAP and military awards convert into sustained volume. Revenue reaches or exceeds the top of the $6.375-$6.500 billion range, adjusted EBITDA reaches or exceeds $910 million, and adjusted free cash flow reaches or exceeds $300 million.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA increased 12.3% year over year and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 100 basis points to 14.4%, supporting raised full-year guidance.
LEAP and CFM56 DFW programs reached profitability during Q2, reducing a key drag from growth-platform industrialization.
The multi-year Avolon LEAP framework, Arajet LEAP-1B agreement and continuing capacity ramp broaden the commercial growth-platform opportunity.
The ten-year U.S. Air Force T56 award and UK CT7-2E1 program add long-duration military demand signals.

Key Investment Risks

Supply-chain delays can constrain engine throughput and increase working capital while engines await parts.
Disclosure controls remained ineffective at June 30, 2026 because material weaknesses persisted across the control environment, period-end reporting and IT general controls.
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 2.6x at June 30, 2026, and first-half operating cash flow remained negative despite positive Q2 free cash flow.
Customer and OEM-license concentration remain meaningful: one customer generated 10.7% of first-half revenue, and loss of an OEM authorization or license is an identified risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.