STAG Industrial Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Industrial Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $34.10median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $35.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7B Enterprise Value $10.2B Shares Outstanding 191.7M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary STAG Industrial, Inc. operates as a pure-play industrial REIT focused on single-tenant industrial properties across the United States. The company is positioned to benefit from steady organic growth driven by mark-to-market lease roll-ups (3% to 5% organic growth) and a robust balance sheet with low leverage (5.0x Net Debt to EBITDAre). However, near-term performance is balanced by significant national industrial supply headwinds, with approximately 180 million square feet of deliveries expected in 2026. This supply wave is likely to keep occupancy stable but limit aggressive rent growth, justifying a Hold recommendation at current valuation levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$42.08 High · most bullish analyst$46.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $40.0015% Elevated industrial supply deliveries lead to a decline in tenant retention rates, forcing higher downtime and leasing concessions. Slower economic activity dampens warehouse demand, compressing NOI growth below 3.0%. Base CaseCentral scenario $42.0860% Matches the consensus meanCore FFO grows at a moderate pace of 2.7% to 4.0% in 2026, supported by Same Store Cash NOI growth of ~3.5% to 4.1% and stable operating occupancy of 96.0%. The stock trades in line with its historical multiples and consensus NAV. Bull CaseUpside scenario $46.0025% Accelerated acquisition activity driven by stabilizing capital markets and potential interest rate cuts, combined with stronger-than-expected lease roll-ups and development yields, leading to upward revisions in Core FFO guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |