Stabilis Solutions Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Stabilis Solutions Inc

SLNGNASDAQ

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Storage and Transportation

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value $5.08median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $4.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $89.8M

Enterprise Value $93.8M

Shares Outstanding 18.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Stabilis Solutions is navigating a challenging transitional phase in 2026 following the expiration of two major multi-year contracts in late 2025, which caused Q1 2026 revenues to drop 40.2% YoY and pushed Adjusted EBITDA into negative territory. However, the long-term outlook is anchored by a massive $200 million, 2-year behind-the-meter data center LNG supply contract starting in Q1 2027. Near-term performance is expected to remain soft, but commercial momentum in aerospace (+31% YoY in Q1 2026) and upcoming short-term commissioning contracts should drive a recovery in the second half of 2026. The primary risk remains the delayed Final Investment Decision (FID) on the flagship Galveston LNG project after the termination of a key 10-year marine offtake agreement in April 2026. A Hold rating is recommended until there is clearer visibility on Galveston project financing and replacement offtake commitments.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.00

Mean target$9.00

High · most bullish analyst$9.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$3.2015%

The Galveston LNG project is indefinitely shelved or cancelled due to an inability to secure replacement offtake agreements or project financing. Capital expenditures for the data center contract exceed customer prepayments, straining unrestricted liquidity and forcing dilutive equity raises under the ATM program. Growth in aerospace and industrial markets slows down, leaving the company with prolonged negative Adjusted EBITDA.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$9.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

Stabilis bridges the 2026 transition year through short-term commissioning and industrial contracts, leading to a financial recovery in H2 2026. The $200 million data center contract begins on schedule in Q1 2027, providing highly visible, stable cash flows. The Galveston LNG project remains delayed into 2027 as the company negotiates new offtake agreements and restructured financing terms.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$9.0025%

The company rapidly secures alternative anchor customers for the Galveston LNG facility, allowing it to reach FID by late 2026. The $200 million data center contract commences smoothly in Q1 2027, and the company wins additional high-margin behind-the-meter power generation contracts. Aerospace revenues continue to grow at >30% annually, driving a rapid return to profitability and significant multiple expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Secured a landmark $200 million, 2-year LNG supply contract for behind-the-meter data center power generation starting in Q1 2027, providing strong multi-year revenue visibility.
Robust growth in the high-margin aerospace sector, which grew 31% YoY in Q1 2026, driven by rising demand for reusable rocket propulsion systems.
Strong operating cash flow of $12.4 million in Q1 2026, bolstered by $15.0 million in customer advance payments that mitigate near-term equipment financing needs.

Key Investment Risks

Significant near-term revenue and margin pressure following the expiration of two major multi-year contracts in Q4 2025, making 2026 a transitional year.
Execution and development delays at the flagship Galveston LNG facility after the termination of a key 10-year, 50-million-gallon-per-year marine offtake agreement in April 2026.
Tight unrestricted liquidity, with only $3.17 million in cash (excluding restricted cash) as of March 31, 2026, which may increase reliance on the dilutive $100 million ATM equity program.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Cancellation or material downsizing of the $200 million data center contract scheduled for Q1 2027.
Complete abandonment of the Galveston LNG liquefaction project due to failure to secure replacement offtake or project financing.
Severe dilution of existing shareholders through aggressive utilization of the $100 million S-3 shelf registration.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.