SSR Mining Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $33.82median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$128based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $33.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.8B Enterprise Value $5.1B Shares Outstanding 213.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SSR Mining is undergoing a major strategic transformation, pivoting away from higher-risk emerging market jurisdictions to establish a cleaner, Americas-focused precious metals platform. The definitive agreement to sell its 80% stake in the Çöpler mine in Türkiye for $1.5 billion in cash, combined with the sale of its 20% interest in Hod Maden for an uncapped 4.0% NSR royalty, significantly de-risks the company's operational profile. This transition leaves SSR Mining with a robust balance sheet, zero debt, and a massive cash stockpile to fund organic growth and aggressive capital returns, including a newly authorized $500 million share buyback and reinstated quarterly dividend. However, near-term operational sequencing risks—with production heavily weighted to the second half of 2026 and capital expenditures front-loaded in the first half—will likely compress margins and free cash flow in the near term, justifying a Hold rating until the Çöpler transaction officially closes and second-half operational improvements materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$39.00 Mean target$41.40 High · most bullish analyst$48.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $39.0015% The bear case is driven by potential regulatory delays or failure to close the $1.5 billion Çöpler transaction, leaving the company exposed to ongoing care and maintenance costs of $35 million to $40 million per quarter in Türkiye. Additionally, operational setbacks such as blending constraints at Marigold, grade volatility at Seabee, or inflationary pressures on diesel and labor could push all-in sustaining costs (AISC) above the high end of guidance. A sharp correction in gold and silver prices from their current historic highs would severely compress margins and delay the anticipated free cash flow inflection in the second half of 2026. Base CaseCentral scenario $41.4050% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes the Çöpler transaction closes on schedule in Q3 2026, and the company meets its full-year 2026 production guidance of 450,000 to 535,000 gold equivalent ounces. Near-term financial results will reflect elevated unit costs and capital expenditures in the first half of the year, which will gradually normalize as production volumes rise in the second half. The company will steadily execute its share buyback program and maintain its reinstated quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share. Valuation multiples will remain somewhat discounted relative to senior peers until the transition to a pure-play Americas producer is fully completed and operational consistency is demonstrated over multiple quarters. Bull CaseUpside scenario $48.0035% The bull case is anchored on the successful execution of the Americas-focused strategy. Upon closing the $1.5 billion Çöpler sale in Q3 2026, SSR Mining's cash reserves will surge to over $2.1 billion, providing unmatched financial flexibility. Operational scale in the United States, driven by the high-performing Cripple Creek & Victor (CC&V) mine in Colorado and the long-lived Marigold mine in Nevada, positions the company as a top-tier U.S. gold producer. Strong silver contributions from the Puna mine in Argentina, combined with record-high precious metals prices, will drive substantial free cash flow generation in the second half of 2026. Aggressive share repurchases under the newly authorized $500 million program will significantly accrete per-share value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |