SR Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $14.11median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $18.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 25% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $136.9M Enterprise Value $123.3M Shares Outstanding 7.6M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SR Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRBK) is a micro-cap bank holding company for Somerset Regal Bank, operating in New Jersey. Following its mutual-to-stock conversion and merger with Regal Bancorp in late 2023, the bank has successfully expanded its commercial lending capabilities and improved its net interest margin to 3.00% as of March 31, 2026. While the bank demonstrates solid balance sheet growth and a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders—highlighted by a recent 20% dividend increase to $0.06 per share and the authorization of its third stock repurchase program—it faces headwinds from elevated funding costs and a highly concentrated loan portfolio. Given the limited analyst coverage and fair valuation relative to its book value, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the bank continues to digest its merger and execute its capital return programs. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.00 Mean target$19.00 High · most bullish analyst$19.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.0015% Severe net interest margin compression due to rising deposit competition and high-cost wholesale borrowings, coupled with credit quality deterioration in the commercial real estate portfolio, pressures profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $19.0055% Matches the consensus meanThe bank maintains a stable net interest margin around 3.00%, steadily repurchases shares under its authorized programs, and continues to pay its increased quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share, keeping pace with regional peers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $21.0030% Accelerated loan growth in high-yield commercial real estate and multi-family segments, combined with rapid execution of the newly authorized 10% stock repurchase program, drives significant EPS expansion and book value accretion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |