Sportradar Group AG Dossier - Source-backed chat

Sportradar Group AG

SRADNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)1.41

Intrinsic Value $22.46median of 6 methods · middle span $19-$46based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $11.86Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 89% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+89%)

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Market Cap $3.5B

Enterprise Value $3.3B

Shares Outstanding 296M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Sportradar Group AG (NASDAQ: SRAD) is a leading global sports technology company positioned at the intersection of sports, media, and betting. Despite recent short-seller reports and subsequent class-action litigation alleging exposure to black-market operators, the company's underlying operational fundamentals remain highly robust. Sportradar continues to demonstrate strong organic growth, high customer retention, and significant operating leverage, further bolstered by the strategic integration of IMG Arena. With a debt-free balance sheet, record levels of free cash flow, and aggressive share buybacks, the stock presents an attractive risk-reward profile at its current compressed valuation multiples.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$14.09

Mean target$18.56

High · most bullish analyst$38.24

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$14.0915%

The bear case is triggered by prolonged legal battles and reputational damage stemming from the class-action lawsuit, leading to customer churn or difficulties in renewing exclusive data rights with major sports leagues. Tightening regulatory frameworks in key jurisdictions (such as Germany, the UK, or Brazil) restrict betting advertising and wagering volumes. Continued foreign exchange headwinds from a strong USD inflate sports rights costs, squeezing operating margins. Under this scenario, revenue growth slows to the high single digits and valuation multiples remain compressed.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$18.5660%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case projects that Sportradar successfully delivers on its reiterated fiscal 2026 guidance, achieving constant-currency revenue growth of 23% to 25% (to a range of €1,557 million to €1,582 million) and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 34% to 37% (to a range of €390 million to €400 million). Customer net retention remains stable around 108%-110%, and free cash flow conversion continues to exceed 56%. The company maintains its dominant 40% global market share in sports data, and the stock undergoes a steady valuation re-rating as operational execution offsets short-term regulatory and legal noise.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$38.2425%

The bull case assumes rapid commercialization and cross-selling of the newly acquired IMG Arena rights, exceeding the 25% synergy target. Sizable expansion into high-margin prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi partnership) and iGaming (via the Playradar brand) accelerates top-line growth. Strong operating leverage drives EBITDA margin expansion beyond the guided 200-225 basis points, while aggressive execution of the $250 million enhanced share buyback program significantly boosts EPS. Legal overhangs from the class-action lawsuit are resolved with minimal financial or reputational damage.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant market position with approximately 40% global share in the third-party sports data market.
Highly predictable, B2B-focused business model with strong recurring subscription and revenue-sharing streams.
Robust balance sheet with zero debt and substantial liquidity (€542 million as of Q1 2026).
Strong cash generation capability, highlighted by a 67% free cash flow conversion rate in Q1 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Ongoing class-action securities litigation alleging intentional partnerships with black-market gambling operators.
High exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations, particularly USD-denominated sports rights contracts.
Intense competition from primary rival Genius Sports, which could drive up the cost of securing exclusive sports rights.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Loss of exclusive data distribution rights with major sports leagues (e.g., ATP, NBA, MLB).
A material adverse ruling or substantial financial settlement in the pending securities class-action lawsuit.
A significant drop in the Customer Net Retention Rate below 100%, indicating customer churn.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.