Splash Beverage Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Splash Beverage Group Inc

SBEVNYSE

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryPackaged Foods & Meats

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $0.47Price as of 21 Aug 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $3M

Shares Outstanding 6.4M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Splash Beverage Group, Inc. (SBEV) is undergoing a severe operational and financial crisis, characterized by a near-total collapse of its legacy beverage business, a massive stockholders' deficit, and substantial doubt regarding its ability to continue as a going concern. The company's legacy commercial engine has stalled, generating only $442,732 in net revenue for FY2025 (with zero revenue generated after March 2025 due to a lack of operating capital). Following the rescission of a $20 million Costa Rica water-asset transaction, the company derecognized the associated equity, resulting in a stockholders' deficit of $15,300,828 as of December 31, 2025, which triggered a non-compliance notice from the NYSE American. While the company has appointed new leadership (Interim CEO Brady Cobb and COO Michael Bondurant) and is attempting a strategic pivot into the cannabinoid wellness and biopharmaceutical sectors (including a strategic investment in Avicanna and ongoing discussions with Medterra CBD), the execution risks are exceptionally high. Existing shareholders face extreme dilution risks from the C/M Capital Equity Line of Credit (ELOC) and the proposed 20% Strategic Transformation RSU Plan, alongside imminent delisting threats.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$0.0125%

The company fails to secure a transformative merger or raise sufficient capital to satisfy its immediate debt obligations, including the Decathlon demand of $2.83 million. The NYSE American rejects the company's compliance plan or the company fails to meet the January 29, 2027 deadline, resulting in delisting to the OTC markets. Liquidity completely evaporates, leading to insolvency, restructuring, or a total loss for common equity holders.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$0.1860%

The company struggles to finalize a definitive merger agreement in the cannabinoid sector due to complex tax structuring, debt settlement hurdles, or regulatory delays. While it may execute smaller strategic moves like the Avicanna investment, the legacy beverage business remains inactive. The company relies heavily on highly dilutive equity issuances under the ELOC to meet basic operating expenses and satisfy creditor demands. NYSE American compliance remains highly uncertain, and the stock continues to trade under severe downward pressure near its historical lows.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$0.7515%

The company successfully executes its strategic pivot into the cannabinoid wellness sector by closing a highly accretive merger with Medterra CBD (which generated over $52 million in profitable revenue in FY2025) or similar counterparties. This transaction restores stockholders' equity above the $6.0 million NYSE American minimum, securing the listing. The newly appointed management team leverages its cannabis-sector expertise to scale the platform, utilizing the C/M Capital ELOC to fund working capital and clear outstanding debt obligations, leading to a rapid operational turnaround.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Strategic pivot toward the high-growth cannabinoid wellness and biopharmaceutical markets, which may benefit from evolving federal regulatory frameworks.
Appointment of a new leadership team (Brady Cobb and Michael Bondurant) with deep operational and banking experience in the cannabis and wellness sectors.
Access to up to $32.16 million in gross proceeds via the C/M Capital Equity Line of Credit (ELOC) to fund transition initiatives.

Key Investment Risks

Severe going-concern risk with a working capital deficit and cash reserves of only $381,195 against current liabilities of $16.97 million as of March 31, 2026.
High risk of delisting from the NYSE American exchange due to failure to meet the $6.0 million minimum stockholders' equity requirement.
Extreme shareholder dilution from the ELOC, outstanding convertible preferred shares, and the proposed 20% Strategic Transformation RSU Plan.
Stalled legacy operations with near-zero revenue generation and dependence on unconsummated, non-binding strategic transactions.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Execution of a definitive, non-dilutive merger agreement with a highly profitable cannabinoid operator.
Official acceptance of the compliance plan by the NYSE American and formal extension of the cure period to January 29, 2027.
Securing non-dilutive debt restructuring or a major capital injection from a strategic institutional investor.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.