Spire Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Spire Inc

SRNYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas

Beta (adjusted)0.68

Intrinsic Value $83.28median of 5 methods · middle span $78-$107based on filings through 30 Sep 2025

Market Price $76.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $4.5B

Enterprise Value $9.7B

Shares Outstanding 59M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Spire Inc. is successfully executing a major strategic transformation to become a pure-play, fully regulated natural gas utility. By divesting its non-regulated gas marketing (Spire Marketing) and storage assets, and acquiring Piedmont Natural Gas Tennessee, Spire has significantly lowered its business risk profile and enhanced earnings predictability. The company's long-term growth is anchored by an extensive $11.2 billion 10-year capital plan, which supports a highly visible 5-7% adjusted EPS growth target. Trading at a reasonable valuation with a secure ~4.1% dividend yield, Spire offers an attractive risk-adjusted total return opportunity for income-focused investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$85.00

Mean target$93.22

High · most bullish analyst$100.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$85.0015%

Unfavorable weather patterns (warmer-than-expected winters) depress volumetric gas demand, while restrictive regulatory decisions in Missouri limit rate base recoveries. Higher-for-longer interest rates increase financing costs for the capital-intensive utility, compressing margins and limiting stock performance to the lower bound of analyst expectations.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$93.2260%

Matches the consensus mean

Spire achieves its updated FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.90-$4.10 and transitions smoothly into its FY27 guidance of $5.40-$5.60 as Piedmont Tennessee is fully integrated. The company maintains its 5-7% long-term EPS growth trajectory, supported by steady rate base expansion and consistent execution of its $11.2 billion capital plan.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$100.0025%

Accelerated regulatory approvals and constructive rate case outcomes in Missouri and Alabama drive earned ROEs above historical averages. Seamless integration of the Piedmont Tennessee acquisition delivers immediate accretion, while rapid debt paydown from asset sales lowers interest expenses faster than modeled, pushing the stock toward the high end of analyst targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strategic transition to a 100% regulated utility business mix, eliminating volatile non-regulated marketing earnings.
Strong footprint expansion via the Piedmont Natural Gas Tennessee acquisition, serving over 200,000 customers in the high-growth Nashville area.
Robust 10-year, $11.2 billion capital investment plan driving highly visible rate base growth of 7% in Missouri and 7.5% in Tennessee.
Attractive and secure dividend profile with 23 consecutive years of increases, yielding approximately 4.1%.

Key Investment Risks

Weather dependency, where warmer winter temperatures can significantly reduce heating demand and utility margins.
Regulatory risk, particularly in Missouri, where constructive rate case outcomes are critical to recovering capital investments.
Interest rate sensitivity, as high interest rates increase the cost of debt needed to fund the massive capital expenditure program.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A highly restrictive final order in the upcoming Missouri rate case or AAO hearings that severely limits capital recovery.
Significant integration delays or cost overruns associated with the Piedmont Tennessee transition.
A downgrade in credit ratings that materially increases the company's cost of capital.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.