Spire Global Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryResearch and Consulting Services Beta (adjusted)2.06 Intrinsic Value $9.60median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.97Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $429.1M Enterprise Value $390.3M Shares Outstanding 37.3M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Spire Global is successfully transitioning into a high-growth, pure-play space data and analytics provider following the divestiture of its lower-margin maritime business. By focusing on high-value weather forecasting, radio frequency (RF) intelligence, and sovereign space infrastructure, the company is unlocking significant operating leverage. Despite near-term revenue volatility and a subscale cost structure, Spire's robust backlog, strategic partnerships (such as with Schaeffler and Diehl Defence), and a debt-free balance sheet bolstered by a recent $65.5 million capital raise position it well to achieve Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by late 2026 or early 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.00 Mean target$20.88 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.0020% Delays in satellite deployments, prolonged sales cycles for complex government contracts, or further contract cancellations (similar to the Canadian wildfire-monitoring contract) slow down revenue growth. Continued high capital intensity and cash burn, combined with negative regulatory outcomes from the SEC subpoena, depress valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.6250% Spire delivers on its FY 2026 revenue guidance of $75M to $85M (representing over 50% core growth excluding maritime). The company steadily converts its $184.8M backlog into revenue, maintains non-GAAP gross margins in the mid-40% range, and achieves Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by early 2027, supported by its strong cash position. Bull CaseUpside scenario $24.0030% Accelerated adoption of commercial weather data by agencies like NOAA, rapid expansion of European defense spending on RF geolocation, and successful execution of sovereign space initiatives drive core revenue growth above 60% YoY. Operating leverage kicks in faster than expected, pushing gross margins toward the 60-70% long-term target and achieving positive free cash flow ahead of schedule. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |