Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryHousehold & Personal Products Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value $73.65median of 6 methods · middle span $40-$75based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $79.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.8B Enterprise Value $2.2B Shares Outstanding 22.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SPB) presents a compelling investment opportunity driven by the strategic decoupling of its underperforming Home and Personal Care (HPC) segment. The recently announced $127 million partnership with Oaktree Capital Management isolates HPC's operational risks, establishes a clear valuation floor, and removes it from the parent debt collateral package. This allows the company to refocus capital on its high-margin, market-leading Global Pet Care (GPC) and Home & Garden (H&G) segments, which are experiencing robust organic growth and margin expansion. With a strong balance sheet, low leverage of 1.66x, and consistent free cash flow generation supporting share buybacks, SPB is well-positioned for a significant valuation re-rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$90.00 Mean target$99.71 High · most bullish analyst$110.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent macroeconomic headwinds and high inflation severely depress consumer spending on discretionary pet and garden products. The separation of the HPC segment faces regulatory or operational delays, and the joint venture fails to stabilize HPC's margins. Increased input costs and renewed tariff pressures compress gross margins, while aggressive debt-financed share repurchases or poor capital allocation to M&A weaken the balance sheet. Base CaseCentral scenario The strategic partnership with Oaktree Capital successfully isolates the HPC segment, allowing management to focus on GPC and H&G. Organic sales growth in Pet Care and Home & Garden offsets minor declines in HPC, leading to flat to low-single-digit top-line growth. Adjusted EBITDA margins expand due to lower tariff exposure and cost-saving initiatives. Share repurchases continue at a moderate pace, and leverage remains well within the target range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |