Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

S&P Global offers attractive medium-term objectives—7%-9% organic constant-currency revenue growth, 50-75 basis points of annual adjusted-margin expansion, and double-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth—but the shares closed at $442.89 on August 28, 2026 following completion of the Mobility separation. Execution against the post-separation targets, particularly in Market Intelligence and Energy, is the central monitoring issue.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$444.00
Mean target$516.95
High · most bullish analyst$553.00
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$444.0020%

Growth below management's target ranges, weaker issuance or equity-market conditions, competitive pressure from AI-enabled products, or disruption and lost synergies following the Mobility separation could drive the shares toward the lower end of their official 52-week range.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$516.9560%
Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes performance remains broadly consistent with management's medium-term framework while investors wait for clearer evidence of post-separation execution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$553.0020%

Execution at or above the upper ends of the medium-term targets, successful AI and private-markets product expansion, and limited disruption from the completed Mobility separation could support a return toward the official 52-week high observed on August 28, 2026.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • Management targets 7%-9% average annual organic constant-currency revenue growth, 50-75 basis points of annual adjusted-margin expansion, and double-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth over the medium term.
  • The capital-return framework targets approximately 85% of adjusted free cash flow through dividends and repurchases, supported by authorization to repurchase up to 30 million shares.
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Key Investment Risks
  • The July 2026 Mobility separation creates execution, stranded-cost, tax-treatment, disruption, and lost-synergy risks during the transition to a four-division company.
  • Results remain exposed to debt issuance, equity and commodity markets, regulation, cybersecurity and data integrity, customer cost pressures, and competition from AI-enabled products.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.