SouthState Bank Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

SouthState Bank Corp

SSBNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.81

Intrinsic Value $113.83median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $100.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $9.8B

Shares Outstanding 98M diluted

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

SouthState entered the second half of 2026 with solid loan and deposit growth, low net charge-offs, improved efficiency, strong regulatory capital and double-digit year-over-year tangible-book-value growth. Offsetting considerations include a lower net interest margin than one year earlier, growth in non-acquired nonaccrual loans and substantial investor commercial-real-estate exposure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$105.00

Mean target$119.86

High · most bullish analyst$130.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$105.0020%

The downside case assumes renewed margin compression and credit normalization, with particular attention to non-acquired nonaccrual loans, which increased year over year, and the large investor commercial-real-estate portfolio.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$119.8655%

Matches the consensus mean

The modal case assumes continued balance-sheet growth and benign credit costs, partly offset by margin remaining below its prior-year level.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$130.0025%

The upside case assumes the second-quarter combination of an 11% annualized sequential increase in loans, stable sequential margin, a 50% efficiency ratio and 0.06% annualized net charge-offs persists, while capital and tangible-book-value growth continue to support shareholder distributions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Loans increased 8% year over year and deposits increased 5%, while second-quarter annualized net charge-offs were 0.06%.
Tangible book value per share increased 13% year over year after an 11% dividend increase and the repurchase of nearly 5% of outstanding shares.
Second-quarter preliminary Tier 1 common equity and total risk-based capital ratios were 11.1% and 13.5%, respectively.

Key Investment Risks

Tax-equivalent net interest margin was 3.78% in the second quarter of 2026 versus 4.02% one year earlier.
Non-acquired nonaccrual and restructured loans on nonaccrual increased to $171.264 million from $141.910 million one year earlier.
Investor commercial-real-estate loans were $18.656 billion at June 30, 2026, making that portfolio an important credit-monitoring exposure.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.