Southern Copper Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryCopper Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value $140.36median of 6 methods · middle span $111-$194based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $199.22Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $168.2B Enterprise Value $170.5B Shares Outstanding 826.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Southern Copper offers substantial long-duration copper exposure, low reported net cash costs supported by by-product credits, and a visible growth catalyst in Tía María. The near-term operating picture is mixed: H1 2026 copper output declined year over year, although management raised full-year guidance to 917,000 reported tons, while Tía María reached 42% completion with initial production expected in H2 2027. The July 2026 dividend increase supports the shareholder-return case, but copper-price cyclicality, lower ore grades and project-execution risk warrant a balanced stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$126.98 Mean target$166.38 High · most bullish analyst$247.04 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $126.9820% Lower ore grades or operating disruptions cause production to miss the 917,000-ton guidance, by-product credits normalize and Tía María commissioning slips beyond 2027. The combination would reduce near-term operating leverage and defer expected growth volumes. Base CaseCentral scenario $166.3858% Matches the consensus meanFY2026 production finishes around the updated 917,000-ton guidance, net cash costs remain comparatively low with continued by-product support, and Tía María begins production during H2 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $247.0422% Copper prices and by-product credits remain supportive, FY2026 production meets or exceeds 917,000 reported tons, and Tía María progresses from 42% completion to an on-schedule H2 2027 start. This would improve confidence in the company's longer-term production expansion and sustain shareholder distributions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |