Southern Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Southern Co

SONYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryElectric Utilities

Beta (adjusted)0.56

Intrinsic Value $72.97median of 6 methods · middle span $68-$84based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $83.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $96B

Enterprise Value $167.1B

Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Southern Company combines accelerating Southeast electricity demand, 17 GW of contracted large-load projects, strong first-half adjusted EPS and a 25-year dividend-growth record. Management expects FY2026 adjusted EPS near or at the top of its $4.50-$4.60 range and projects 8%-9% adjusted EPS growth through 2028 followed by 7%-8% longer-term growth. These merits are balanced by an $81 billion 2026-2030 capital program, continuing equity requirements, regulatory and affordability constraints, and the execution risk of building generation and transmission capacity ahead of projected large-load demand.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$79.00

Mean target$100.61

High · most bullish analyst$114.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$79.0020%

Large-load projects are delayed or reduced, construction and financing costs rise, or regulatory recovery lags investment. Higher equity needs and weaker earnings delivery compress the valuation despite the regulated utility base and dividend.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$100.6155%

Matches the consensus mean

Southern Company delivers FY2026 adjusted EPS within the $4.50-$4.60 range, executes most of its contracted-load and regulated-capital plan, and sustains dividend growth, while financing and regulatory requirements constrain valuation expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$114.0025%

The contracted large-load portfolio remains intact, late-stage projects convert, electricity-sales growth remains strong and adjusted EPS reaches the top of guidance. Timely regulatory recovery, disciplined financing and successful construction support management's upper growth objectives and a premium utility valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Seventeen GW of contracted large-load capacity, an additional 8 GW in late-stage or finalizing phases, and 49% year-to-date data-center usage growth provide an unusually visible demand runway.
Management projects 8%-9% adjusted EPS growth through 2028 and 7%-8% longer-term growth, supported by an $81 billion capital plan concentrated in state-regulated utilities.
The company has increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years, and the current quarterly dividend is $0.76 per share.

Key Investment Risks

The $81 billion 2026-2030 capital plan requires substantial debt and equity financing, exposing shareholders to financing-cost and dilution risk.
Projected data-center and other large-load demand may be delayed, reduced or cancelled before all associated generation and transmission investments earn returns.
Rate recovery, customer affordability, regulatory approvals, construction costs and project schedules can materially affect realized returns from the investment program.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.