Sotera Health Co Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDiagnostics & Research Beta (adjusted)1.51 Intrinsic Value $14.92median of 6 methods · middle span $10-$18based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $18.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.2B Enterprise Value $7B Shares Outstanding 290.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sotera Health Co. represents a compelling investment opportunity in the healthcare services sector, driven by its mission-critical sterilization and lab testing services, high customer switching costs, and a significant reduction in litigation overhang. The company's recent decisive legal victory in April 2026, where all Phase 1 Georgia cases were dismissed, establishes a strong precedent for the remaining litigation. Furthermore, the planned transition to new CEO Alton Shader brings a growth-oriented leader with deep medtech experience, while outgoing CEO Michael B. Petras, Jr. remains as Executive Chairman to ensure strategic continuity. With a robust business model where approximately 90% of revenues are tied to recurring multi-year contracts, Sotera is well-positioned to deliver steady mid-single-digit top-line growth and strong cash generation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$22.72 High · most bullish analyst$25.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential operational disruptions, such as delays in Cobalt-60 harvest schedules at Nordion or underutilization of new X-ray facilities. Stricter EPA regulations could require higher-than-expected capital expenditures for emission controls, limiting free cash flow. Additionally, any unexpected adverse rulings in the remaining Georgia litigation cases could reignite investor concerns and compress valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Sotera Health successfully executes its 2026 financial targets, delivering net revenues of $1.233 billion to $1.251 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $632 million to $641 million. Deleveraging continues toward the long-term target of 2.0x to 3.0x, supported by strong free cash flow generation. The remaining Georgia litigation cases are resolved favorably or settled within manageable reserves, leading to multiple expansion as the legal overhang dissipates. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |