SOPHiA Genetics SA Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Technology Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $5.23median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $8.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $683.6M Enterprise Value $661M Shares Outstanding 85.1M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SOPHiA GENETICS is transitioning into a high-leverage growth phase, supported by robust volume expansion on its AI-native SOPHiA DDM platform and a clear path toward profitability. The company's cloud-native SaaS model is demonstrating strong scalability, evidenced by an adjusted gross margin of 75.4% in Q1 2026. With a major leadership transition scheduled for July 1, 2026, where Ross Muken will take over as CEO, and a freshly bolstered balance sheet following a $57.5 million public offering in June 2026, the company is well-positioned to execute on its high-value U.S. clinical pipeline and expand its biopharma partnerships. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.00 Mean target$9.00 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $5.0020% Integration delays with major U.S. health systems slow down volume growth, while biopharma customer headwinds persist. High cloud compute costs or increased litigation expenses compress margins, delaying the path to EBITDA breakeven beyond 2027 and necessitating further dilutive equity raises. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.0060% SOPHiA executes on its reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $92 million to $94 million (20% to 22% YoY growth) and approaches adjusted EBITDA breakeven by year-end. The leadership transition proceeds smoothly, and the $57.5 million capital raise provides sufficient runway to reach self-sustainability in late 2027. Net Dollar Retention remains stable above 110%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.0725% U.S. health system integrations scale faster than expected, driving analysis volumes well past projections. The joint venture with Memorial Sloan Kettering (MSK) accelerates clinical adoption of liquid biopsy applications (MSK-ACCESS), leading to positive adjusted EBITDA ahead of the H2 2027 target. Multiple expansion occurs as the market recognizes SOPHiA's high-margin recurring SaaS revenue model. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |