Sony Group Corp ADR Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryConsumer Electronics Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $7.36median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2025 Market Price $23.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 69% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-69%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $137.3B Shares Outstanding 6B diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sony enters the remainder of FY2026 with favorable operating momentum across its creative-entertainment and imaging businesses. PlayStation retained 125 million monthly active users in June 2026, while Crunchyroll exceeded 21 million subscribers, supporting recurring digital monetization and Sony's anime strategy. The balanced view reflects weaker PlayStation playtime, declining current-generation console shipments, semiconductor operational exposure. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$30.00 High · most bullish analyst$34.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0023% The downside case assumes PlayStation engagement and playtime deteriorate, Crunchyroll subscriber growth stalls near the disclosed level, major content releases underperform, or image-sensor demand and production are disrupted. These outcomes would weaken the strategic premise that Sony's focused entertainment portfolio can produce durable engagement-led growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.0056% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes resilient PlayStation and music engagement, continued but moderating anime growth, and broadly stable imaging-sensor demand, partially offset by console-cycle maturity and execution risk. Bull CaseUpside scenario $34.0021% The upside case assumes PlayStation engagement remains near its June record, higher-value network and content spending offsets mature console hardware volumes, Crunchyroll continues growing beyond 21 million subscribers, and Sony converts anime, music, pictures and gaming intellectual property into additional cross-platform revenue. Sustained imaging-sensor demand and effective execution of Sony's entertainment-focused strategy would reinforce this outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |