Sonic Automotive Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto & Truck Dealerships Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $70.70median of 6 methods · middle span $56-$83based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $63.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $3.8B Shares Outstanding 33M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sonic Automotive Inc. (SAH) presents a compelling investment opportunity driven by the successful operational turnaround of its EchoPark pre-owned vehicle segment and robust performance in high-margin Fixed Operations. While macroeconomic headwinds and elevated interest rates continue to pressure new vehicle volumes, Sonic's diversified business model—spanning franchised luxury dealerships, used-car retail, and powersports—provides resilient cash flows. The company's aggressive capital return strategy, highlighted by a newly approved $500 million share repurchase authorization and an 8% dividend increase, further enhances shareholder value. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$72.00 Mean target$99.00 High · most bullish analyst$139.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $72.00 Persistent high interest rates and inflationary pressures severely dampen consumer demand for both new and used vehicles. Increased price competition and elevated industry inventory levels lead to severe margin compression in new vehicle sales, pushing GPUs below $2,500. EchoPark's expansion plans face execution delays and fail to sustain profitability, leading to segment losses. Base CaseCentral scenario $99.00 Matches the consensus meanSonic successfully executes its disciplined EchoPark footprint expansion in late 2026, with the segment achieving its raised FY 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $35-40 million. Franchised dealerships maintain stable new vehicle GPUs within the 'new normal' range of $2,500 to $3,000, while Fixed Operations grow at a mid-single-digit rate. Share repurchases continue to drive EPS compounding. Bull CaseUpside scenario $139.00 The EchoPark segment's expansion accelerates faster than expected, capturing significant market share in the 1-4 year-old pre-owned vehicle market. Fixed operations gross profit continues to grow at double-digit rates, offsetting any margin compression in new vehicle sales. Macroeconomic conditions ease, leading to lower interest rates that stimulate consumer financing and lower floor plan carrying costs. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |