Solventum Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Instruments & Supplies Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $71.83median of 5 methods · middle span $71-$73based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $87.77Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.9B Enterprise Value $19.1B Shares Outstanding 174.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Solventum's operating transformation is producing encouraging evidence: every reportable segment generated positive organic growth in the second quarter, adjusted EPS increased substantially, and management raised its 2026 organic-growth, adjusted-EPS and free-cash-flow guidance. The longer-term opportunity rests on converting the Transform for the Future program into durable savings, moving toward the 2028 growth and margin targets, and separating Health Information Systems without disrupting its high-margin franchise. The evidence is not yet sufficient for a more constructive recommendation because second-quarter growth included approximately $125 million of ERP-related advance orders, first-half free cash flow remained negative, litigation accruals increased materially, and the proposed Health Information Systems separation has uncertain timing and execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$70.00 Mean target$93.92 High · most bullish analyst$113.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $60.0023% The post-ERP normalization exposes weaker underlying demand, full-year organic growth, adjusted EPS or free cash flow falls below the lower end of updated guidance, and legal, restructuring or separation costs remain elevated. A delayed or poorly executed Health Information Systems separation and failure to demonstrate progress toward the 2028 targets would further weaken the investment case. Base CaseCentral scenario $93.9258% Matches the consensus meanSolventum delivers within its raised 2026 guidance ranges, while third-quarter results reflect the anticipated reversal of advance orders. Transformation savings offset part of the continuing standalone, restructuring and separation burden, and the Health Information Systems review progresses without a near-term value-destructive outcome. Bull CaseUpside scenario $113.0019% The company sustains underlying demand after the ERP-related order normalization, delivers at or above the raised 2026 guidance, converts the multiyear transformation into meaningful recurring savings, and structures the Health Information Systems separation in a way that preserves or highlights its strong growth and margin profile. Progress toward the 2028 organic-growth, operating-margin and cash-conversion targets supports a higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |