Sohu.com Ltd ADR Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryInteractive Home Entertainment Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $13.45median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $12.82Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $385.4M Enterprise Value $257.5M Shares Outstanding 28.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sohu.com Limited continues to navigate a bifurcated operational landscape. While its online gaming subsidiary, Changyou, remains a highly profitable cash cow driven by the resilient Tian Long Ba Bu (TLBB) franchise, the core Sohu Media Platform continues to face severe macroeconomic headwinds. Brand advertising and marketing services remain under intense pressure due to cautious advertiser spending and budget cuts. Although the company maintains a robust cash position and is actively executing its share repurchase program, the lack of near-term catalysts for core media growth and the projected sequential decline in gaming revenues for Q2 2026 justify a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$19.00 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a scenario where the core TLBB franchise experiences accelerated user churn and steeper-than-expected revenue declines. Simultaneously, persistent macroeconomic weakness in China could cause brand advertising budgets to contract further, leading to wider quarterly net losses exceeding USD 25 million and accelerated cash burn. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that Changyou's gaming portfolio remains stable with minor sequential fluctuations due to seasonal promotional activities. Brand advertising revenues will continue to experience low-to-mid single-digit declines or flat growth due to persistent macroeconomic challenges in China. Operating expenses are expected to remain tightly controlled, keeping quarterly net losses within the guided range of USD 15 million to USD 25 million for Q2 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario Sohu remains deeply undervalued due to structural complexity and a governance discount. The bull case is driven by its highly profitable gaming franchise, Changyou, which generated $236.8M in operating profit in 2025 and effectively funds the loss-making media segment. Furthermore, Sohu maintains a robust balance sheet with $830.7M in cash and short-term investments against $358M in total liabilities, leaving substantial deployable capital for share repurchases and capital allocation strategies that could narrow the persistent valuation discount. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |