Sociedad Quimica Y Minera de Chile SA ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySpecialty Chemicals Beta (adjusted)0.98 Intrinsic Value $116.22median of 6 methods · middle span $39-$191based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $64.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 81% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+81%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $18.3B Enterprise Value $23B Shares Outstanding 285.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SQM entered the second half of 2026 with sharply improved operating momentum: first-half revenue more than doubled year over year, gross margin reached 48.2%, net income exceeded US$1.0 billion, and second-quarter lithium sales surpassed 84,000 metric tons LCE. Management also raised its 2026 global lithium-demand expectation to above 2.1 million metric tons. These indicators support a constructive operating outlook, supplemented by favorable iodine pricing and stronger Specialty Plant Nutrition activity. A Hold recommendation is nevertheless appropriate because the earnings rebound remains sensitive to lithium prices and demand, material expansion depends on permitting and execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$44.35 Mean target$84.78 High · most bullish analyst$110.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $44.3517% Lithium demand or pricing reverses, quarterly sales fall below the first-quarter 2026 level, and gross margin retreats toward the 2025 baseline. Delayed Salar Futuro permitting or weaker non-lithium volumes would further reduce earnings resilience. Base CaseCentral scenario $84.7857% Matches the consensus meanLithium demand remains healthy but pricing and margins normalize from the exceptionally strong first half. SQM maintains solid volumes across lithium, iodine and Specialty Plant Nutrition while progressing Salar Futuro permitting. Bull CaseUpside scenario $110.0026% Lithium demand remains above management's 2.1-million-ton expectation, pricing continues to strengthen, and quarterly sales remain near or above the second-quarter record. Sustained utilization in Chile and Australia, combined with favorable iodine and Specialty Plant Nutrition conditions, preserves a gross margin materially above the 2025 level. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |