Snap-on Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Snap-on Inc

SNANYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTools & Accessories

Beta (adjusted)0.82

Intrinsic Value $279.30median of 6 methods · middle span $259-$472based on filings through 4 Jul 2026

Market Price $367.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $19B

Enterprise Value $18.6B

Shares Outstanding 52.5M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Snap-on entered the second half of 2026 with positive consolidated organic growth, higher gross margin, increased diluted EPS and strong Commercial & Industrial performance. The balance is less favorable: operating margin before financial services remained below its prior-year comparison, Financial Services revenue and originations declined, and both the Snap-on Tools and Repair Systems & Information groups reported lower second-quarter operating margins. Strong liquidity and a rising dividend provide downside support.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$330.00

Mean target$413.78

High · most bullish analyst$485.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$330.0020%

Tariff, raw-material, supply-chain or macroeconomic pressures weaken demand and compress margins; acquisition integration falls short; franchise-channel activity slows; and lower Financial Services originations reduce portfolio revenue while credit indicators deteriorate. This combination would undermine the current earnings and cash-generation resilience.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$413.7855%

Matches the consensus mean

Low-single-digit consolidated organic growth continues, with Commercial & Industrial strength offsetting slower Repair Systems & Information growth and modest Financial Services contraction. Gross-margin improvement partly cushions elevated personnel, technology and other operating costs, while liquidity and dividends remain supportive.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$485.0025%

Commercial & Industrial momentum broadens across critical industries, acquired capabilities integrate successfully, Rapid Continuous Improvement savings offset material and operating-cost pressure, and margins recover in the Tools and Repair Systems & Information groups. Continued positive organic growth, strong cash generation and dividend growth would reinforce this outcome.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter net sales increased 4.7%, including 3.0% organic growth, while gross margin improved to 51.4% from 50.5%.
Diluted EPS increased to $4.96 from $4.72, and consolidated operating earnings increased to $336.4 million from $327.3 million.
Commercial & Industrial Group organic sales increased 11.0%, with operating earnings up 41.8% and operating margin expanding to 16.8% from 13.5%.
As of July 4, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $1.645 billion, first-half operating cash flow was $640.2 million, and adjusted consolidated cash exceeded consolidated debt.
The quarterly dividend was $2.44 per share in each of the first three declared 2026 payments, versus $2.14 for the first three 2025 payments.

Key Investment Risks

Operating margin before financial services declined to 21.8% from 22.0% in the second quarter and to 21.3% from 21.6% for the first half.
Snap-on Tools Group second-quarter operating margin fell to 22.6% from 23.8%, despite 3.0% organic sales growth.
Repair Systems & Information Group second-quarter operating earnings declined 3.9%, and operating margin fell to 24.0% from 25.6% amid higher personnel costs and technology investment.
Financial Services second-quarter revenue declined 2.0%, operating earnings declined 1.0%, and originations declined 4.1%.
Management identifies tariffs, raw-material and component volatility, supply-chain disruption, franchisee retention, acquisition integration, cybersecurity and geographic weakness as material uncertainties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.