Smithfield Foods Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $24.45median of 6 methods · middle span $23-$25based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $18.58Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.3B Enterprise Value $7.9B Shares Outstanding 396.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Smithfield's first-half operating performance and low leverage provide a resilient foundation, but the revised FY2026 outlook, Packaged Meats margin pressure and substantial execution agenda temper the case for a more constructive rating. First-half adjusted operating profit reached $638 million and net leverage was 0.4x, while management now expects FY2026 adjusted operating profit of $1.225-$1.375 billion and roughly flat sales. Potential upside comes from closing and integrating Nathan's Famous and modernizing Sioux Falls; offsetting risks include cautious consumer spending, higher inputs, commodity and tariff volatility, litigation exposure and capital-project execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$30.25 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.0024% Cautious consumer spending and higher input, freight or commodity costs push adjusted operating profit below $1.225 billion; Packaged Meats remains under pressure; Nathan's is delayed or fails to close; or Sioux Falls and litigation commitments absorb more cash than expected. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.2556% Matches the consensus meanFY2026 sales remain roughly flat and adjusted operating profit finishes within the revised $1.225-$1.375 billion range. Low leverage provides capacity for the pending Nathan's acquisition and ordinary investment, but softer Packaged Meats margins and macroeconomic pressure constrain upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $35.0020% Adjusted operating profit reaches the upper end of the revised FY2026 range, Packaged Meats profitability stabilizes, Nathan's Famous closes with its expected accretion and $9 million run-rate synergies on track, and the Sioux Falls project proceeds without exceeding its preliminary cost. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |