Smith & Nephew plc ADR Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Devices Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $109.49median of 6 methods · middle span $82-$164based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $26.58Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 312% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+312%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.1B Enterprise Value $13.7B Shares Outstanding 418.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Smith+Nephew's profit and efficiency execution remains constructive, but the investment case is balanced by a material reduction in 2026 revenue guidance. H1 underlying revenue grew 2.3%, while trading profit increased 8.1% and trading margin expanded 60 basis points. Management now expects approximately 4% full-year underlying revenue growth, down from approximately 6%, while retaining around 8% trading-profit growth, approximately $800 million of free cash flow and adjusted ROIC above 10%. Sports Medicine is performing strongly, but US Knee Implants and Advanced Wound Bioactives remain important execution tests. The ADR closed at $28.97 on 28 August 2026, near the bottom of its issuer-reported 52-week range. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$33.66 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $30.0024% US knee weakness persists, skin-substitute reimbursement pressure and SANTYL softness continue, and H2 revenue growth falls below management's 5.0% floor. Lower operating leverage could then jeopardize the retained profit, cash-flow and ROIC guidance despite cost savings. Base CaseCentral scenario $33.6657% Matches the consensus meanRevenue improves into management's 5.0%-5.5% H2 range, producing approximately 4% full-year underlying growth, while additional efficiency savings preserve approximately 8% trading-profit growth and around $800 million of free cash flow. Sports Medicine strength offsets only a gradual recovery in Orthopaedics and Advanced Wound Bioactives. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.0019% Sports Medicine maintains high-single-digit or better growth, new platforms such as TESSA, LANDMARK and next-generation LEAF scale successfully, and US knees and wound bioactives recover during H2. Execution toward the 2028 targets of 6%-7% organic revenue CAGR, 9%-10% trading-profit CAGR, free cash flow above $1 billion and adjusted ROIC of 12%-13% would support a favorable re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |