Smart Sand Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $2.79median of 5 methods · middle span $2-$4based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $5.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 46% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $218.8M Enterprise Value $223.2M Shares Outstanding 41.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Smart Sand, Inc. (NASDAQ: SND) is a leading low-cost producer of premium Northern White frac sand and industrial sand, supported by a robust logistics and wellsite storage platform (SmartSystem). The company has demonstrated strong operational execution, setting a quarterly sales-volume record of nearly 1.5 million tons in Q1 2026. However, its financial performance remains highly sensitive to cyclical energy markets and non-cash tax adjustments, resulting in a net loss of $3.9 million in Q1 2026 despite robust revenues of $93.1 million. While strategic investments in logistics and industrial products offer long-term diversification, the near-term outlook is balanced by volatile commodity dynamics, justifying a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case involves a sharp downturn in oil and gas drilling activity, leading to oversupply in the proppant market and downward pressure on frac sand pricing. Delays in LNG export projects or a slowdown in data center power buildouts reduce expected natural gas demand. Consequently, sales volumes contract, operating margins turn negative due to high fixed costs, and the company fails to achieve positive free cash flow for the full year 2026. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady demand for Northern White sand driven by stable drilling and completion activity, longer lateral well lengths, and rising natural gas demand from LNG exports and AI data centers. Smart Sand successfully achieves its 2026 guidance of 5% to 10% sales volume growth, maintains positive free cash flow, and keeps capital expenditures within the guided $15.0 million to $20.0 million range. Operating margins improve gradually as the higher-margin Industrial Products Solutions business expands. Bull CaseUpside scenario Strong volume growth driven by expanding LNG export capacity and increasing gas-fired power generation to support AI data center electricity needs, combined with successful expansion of the Industrial Products Solutions business. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |