Skywest Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAirlines Beta (adjusted)1.29 Intrinsic Value $116.72median of 6 methods · middle span $84-$252based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $97.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.8B Enterprise Value $6B Shares Outstanding 40.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Mar 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SkyWest is the dominant independent regional airline operator in North America, uniquely insulated from traditional airline volatility through its fixed-fee Capacity Purchase Agreements (CPAs) with major legacy carriers. The company is successfully executing a fleet modernization strategy, transitioning away from 50-seat single-class aircraft to high-margin dual-class Embraer E175s and the newly introduced 41-seat CRJ450 configuration. Despite industry-wide pilot constraints and elevated maintenance costs, SkyWest's robust cash generation, aggressive share buybacks, and significant debt reduction support a compelling valuation discount relative to its long-term earnings power. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$105.00 Mean target$125.17 High · most bullish analyst$160.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Severe pilot attrition to mainline carriers limits block hour production below guidance, while persistent labor and parts shortages in the third-party MRO network drive maintenance costs above 2025 levels. Elevated fuel costs compress margins on the 10% of flying exposed to fuel risk, and legacy partners push back on contract terms during renewals, leading to a contraction in valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario SkyWest maintains stable block hour production with mid-single-digit growth in 2026. The company successfully delivers 9 new E175s and begins operating the premium CRJ450 dual-class aircraft for United Airlines in Fall 2026. Maintenance expenses remain flat year-over-year as parked aircraft are returned to service, and the company achieves full-year GAAP EPS in the $11.00 area. Share repurchases continue opportunistically under the remaining $138 million authorization. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |