SkyWater Technology Inc Dossier
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SectorSemiconductors & Related Devices IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $28.49median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $32.46Price as of 30 Jul 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.6B Enterprise Value $1.7B Shares Outstanding 49.8M diluted Moat Rating None All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SkyWater Technology is in the final stages of being acquired by quantum computing leader IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) for $35.00 per share in a cash-and-stock transaction ($15.00 cash and $20.00 in IonQ stock, subject to a collar). SkyWater stockholders overwhelmingly approved the merger agreement on May 8, 2026. While the company continues to experience near-term profitability pressure—reporting a Q1 2026 adjusted EPS loss of -$0.137—the stock price remains tightly tethered to the implied transaction value of $35.00. The primary driver of shareholder value is no longer standalone operational performance, but rather the successful navigation of the regulatory approval process (specifically the FTC's HSR Second Request issued on April 24, 2026) and the subsequent integration into IonQ's full-stack quantum platform. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$35.00 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The merger faces unexpected regulatory blocks from the FTC or other authorities, leading to a termination of the agreement. SkyWater is forced to continue as a standalone entity, exposing shareholders to its high debt load, capital-intensive expansion costs, and persistent net losses, causing the stock to fall back toward its historical standalone valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario The merger with IonQ is successfully completed in Q2 or Q3 2026 following regulatory clearance. SkyWater shareholders receive the agreed-upon consideration of $15.00 in cash and $20.00 in IonQ common stock (subject to the collar mechanism). SkyWater begins operating as a wholly-owned subsidiary of IonQ, maintaining its pure-play foundry operations and supporting both defense and commercial clients while accelerating IonQ's hardware roadmap. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |