Sky Quarry Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Sky Quarry Inc

SKYQNASDAQ

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Beta (adjusted)1.61

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $2.54Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $22.4M

Enterprise Value $20.4M

Shares Outstanding 8.8M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Sky Quarry Inc. (SKYQ) faces severe operational, financial, and regulatory headwinds that threaten its viability as a going concern. The company's primary revenue-generating asset, the Foreland Eagle Springs Refinery, suffered an extended shutdown in late 2025 and early 2026, reducing Q1 2026 revenues to near zero. Furthermore, Nasdaq suspended trading of the company's common stock on March 31, 2026, due to continued non-compliance with the minimum bid price requirement. With an accumulated deficit of $38.5 million, negative operating cash flows, and active litigation from creditors, the risk of insolvency is extremely high, making the stock a Sell.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The refinery fails to secure feedstock or suffers further outages, creditors enforce security interests on key assets (such as the KF Business Ventures notes), and the company is forced to file for bankruptcy or undergo liquidation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The Foreland Refinery successfully restarts operations by mid-2026, but high feedstock costs, debt service burdens, and lack of Nasdaq liquidity limit equity appreciation. The company trades on the OTC markets with highly depressed multiples.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Successful operational ramp-up of the Foreland Refinery in Nevada, capturing high regional margins as the state's sole operating refinery, combined with the commercialization of the PR Spring oil sands asset using proprietary ECOSolv technology.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Nevada's only operating refinery (Foreland), providing a strategic regional niche for local crude processing.
Proprietary ECOSolv technology targeting a large, untapped market of 15M+ tons of waste asphalt shingles annually.

Key Investment Risks

Severe liquidity constraints with only $66,828 in cash as of March 31, 2026, and substantial current liabilities.
Potential failure to maintain compliance with Nasdaq's minimum bid price requirement, which could lead to delisting and severely limit capital access.
Active litigation from KF Business Ventures alleging breaches of advisory agreements and secured promissory notes.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Securing a major non-dilutive capital injection or joint venture partner to fully fund the PR Spring development.
Successful refinancing of all near-term debt obligations at sustainable interest rates.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.