SiTime Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)2.24 Intrinsic Value $162.06median of 6 methods · middle span $44-$465based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $678.87Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 76% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-76%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.3B Enterprise Value $18.4B Shares Outstanding 28.5M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SiTime entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 127% year over year to USD 157.4 million, every reported segment grew at least 50%, communications, enterprise and data center grew 181%, and non-GAAP gross margin reached 67.1%. The July 1 acquisition of Renesas' timing business added more than 550 clocking products and was expected to contribute at least USD 300 million of revenue during its first 12 months after closing at approximately 70% gross margin. These developments strengthen SiTime's position in precision timing and AI-related infrastructure, but the acquisition materially expands integration complexity and was financed partly through convertible senior notes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$800.00 Mean target$864.38 High · most bullish analyst$900.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $800.0025% Integration of the acquired products and personnel proves more difficult than expected, the acquired business falls short of its USD 300 million post-close revenue expectation, and gross margin retreats from the 67.1% second-quarter level. The convertible-note-funded transaction then leaves investors exposed to greater execution and capital-structure sensitivity as growth normalizes. Base CaseCentral scenario $864.3855% Matches the consensus meanRevenue growth moderates from the exceptional second-quarter rate, but the addition of more than 550 clocking products broadens SiTime's addressable opportunities and the acquired business contributes close to its disclosed post-close expectation. Integration costs and execution demands temper the benefit. Bull CaseUpside scenario $900.0020% The acquired business meets or exceeds its disclosed first-year expectation of USD 300 million of revenue and approximately 70% gross margin, while SiTime sustains broad-based growth and successfully cross-sells its expanded oscillator and clocking portfolio into AI data-center, communications, automotive and industrial applications. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |