SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Distribution Beta (adjusted)1.22 Intrinsic Value $135.31median of 6 methods · middle span $123-$160based on filings through 29 Mar 2026 Market Price $89.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 51% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+51%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.9B Enterprise Value $4.4B Shares Outstanding 44.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SiteOne Landscape Supply maintains its position as the largest national wholesale distributor of landscape supplies in the US and Canada. The company's long-term growth strategy relies on consolidating a highly fragmented $26 billion market through disciplined M&A and leveraging its unmatched scale. However, near-term performance is pressured by macroeconomic headwinds, particularly high interest rates dampening new residential construction and repair-and-upgrade demand. While pricing has shifted from a deflationary headwind to a modest tailwind (projected 2%-3% growth in 2026) and gross margins continue to expand due to commercial initiatives, negative free cash flows in Q1 and a premium valuation relative to peers support a Hold rating until a broader demand recovery materializes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$100.00 Mean target$127.08 High · most bullish analyst$160.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged high interest rates and a deeper downturn in residential construction, causing organic daily sales volumes to decline further. Commodity deflation could re-emerge, putting pressure on gross margins. Additionally, integration challenges or rising acquisition multiples due to increased competition (such as Home Depot's acquisition of SRS Distribution) could slow down the M&A engine and dilute overall profitability, leading to a valuation de-rating. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that SiteOne successfully navigates a flat-to-modestly-down end-market demand environment in 2026. Pricing power remains stable with 2% to 3% growth, and gross margins continue to benefit from private label penetration and commercial initiatives. M&A integration of recent acquisitions like Reinders and Bourget Flagstone proceeds smoothly, contributing to market share gains. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to land within the guided range of $425 million to $455 million, despite a $4 million to $5 million headwind from an extra week in the fiscal calendar. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |