Simulations Plus Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Simulations Plus Inc

SLPNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealthcare Technology

Beta (adjusted)1.21

Intrinsic Value $38.81median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 May 2026

Market Price $18.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 110% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+110%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $374M

Enterprise Value $338.6M

Shares Outstanding 20.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend29 Jul 2024

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Simulations Plus is a global leader in model-informed and AI-accelerated drug development. The company operates a highly resilient business model with a strong software suite (including GastroPlus, MonolixSuite, and ADMET Predictor) and high-margin scientific consulting services. On June 15, 2026, Simulations Plus entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by affiliates of Altaris, LLC in an all-cash transaction valued at $18.50 per share (approximately $375 million), representing a 26% premium to its 60-day volume-weighted average price. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026, at which point the company will be combined with Chemical Computing Group (CCG) to create a broader biosimulation platform. Following the announcement, major analyst firms have downgraded the stock to Hold or Neutral, as the stock price has converged toward the acquisition price.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$16.00

Mean target$17.25

High · most bullish analyst$18.50

Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The merger agreement is terminated due to regulatory roadblocks or failure to obtain shareholder approval. The stock falls back to its pre-announcement trading range, though cushioned by a termination fee of up to $26 million payable by Altaris under certain conditions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The acquisition by Altaris closes successfully in Q4 2026 at the agreed-upon price of $18.50 per share. Simulations Plus is subsequently combined with Chemical Computing Group (CCG) to form a comprehensive computational drug discovery and biosimulation platform, and is delisted from the Nasdaq.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

The bull case centers on Simulations Plus's leadership in AI-driven drug discovery and biosimulation software, which is highly valued by major pharmaceutical companies. The pending acquisition by Altaris at $18.50 per share represents a 26% premium to its 60-day VWAP, validating its intrinsic value. Furthermore, combining Simulations Plus with Chemical Computing Group (CCG) will create a comprehensive, end-to-end biosimulation platform with enhanced cross-selling opportunities and accelerated product innovation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Certainty of value with an all-cash transaction at $18.50 per share, representing a 26% premium to the 60-day VWAP.
Strong strategic fit with Chemical Computing Group (CCG), covering the full computational drug discovery stack from molecular design to pharmacokinetic simulation.
Robust balance sheet with more cash than debt and a current ratio of 5.62, which attracted private equity interest.
Solid operational performance in Q2 fiscal 2026, with revenue beating expectations at $24.3 million and gross margins improving to 66%.

Key Investment Risks

Limited upside beyond the $18.50 acquisition price, capping near-term capital appreciation.
Transaction completion risk, including the need for shareholder approval and regulatory clearances for the Altaris merger.
Opportunity cost of capital tied up in a pending acquisition by Altaris with no further earnings calls or guidance updates scheduled.
Pressure on software renewal rates among smaller biotechnology customers due to macro funding environments.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to close the Altaris acquisition or regulatory hurdles blocking the transaction.
Failure to secure the necessary majority vote from Simulations Plus stockholders or required regulatory clearances (such as Hart-Scott-Rodino and French approvals) to close the Altaris transaction.
Antitrust or regulatory interventions that delay or block the transaction past the outside date of February 10, 2027.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.