Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryLumber & Wood Production Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $181.13median of 6 methods · middle span $158-$226based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $172.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.1B Enterprise Value $6.9B Shares Outstanding 41.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (NYSE: SSD) is a premier manufacturer of engineered structural connectors and building solutions. The company maintains a dominant market position in North American wood construction, supported by its high-quality 'Secret Sauce' culture, extensive training programs, and a robust 98% product fill rate. Despite cyclical headwinds in the U.S. housing market, Simpson consistently outperforms peers through superior pricing power, top-tier operating margins (~19.5%), and strategic expansion into concrete construction and European markets. With a strong net cash position, consistent dividend history, and active share buybacks, the stock represents a high-quality compounder trading at a reasonable valuation relative to its long-term growth potential. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$212.00 Mean target$219.00 High · most bullish analyst$230.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a prolonged high-interest-rate environment with mortgage rates climbing back above 7%, severely depressing U.S. housing starts. Increased steel tariffs and persistent labor inflation compress gross margins. Volume declines in North America are only partially offset by pricing, leading to operating margin contraction below 18.5% and flat to negative EPS growth. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes a flat to slightly down U.S. housing market with mortgage rates stabilizing around 6.5%. Simpson successfully leverages its 2025 pricing actions to drive mid-single-digit organic revenue growth. Operating margins remain resilient within the guided 19.5% to 20.5% range, supported by cost-saving initiatives and the gradual ramp-up of domestic fastener manufacturing. Capital allocation continues to prioritize organic reinvestment, steady dividend growth, and opportunistic share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |