Simon Property Group Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryRetail REITs Beta (adjusted)1.20 Intrinsic Value $159.58median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $200.81Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $76.2B Enterprise Value $103.9B Shares Outstanding 325.4M diluted Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Simon entered the second half of 2026 with strong property-level momentum: second-quarter Real Estate FFO per share increased 7.9% year over year, domestic property NOI increased 8.5%, occupancy remained 96.0%, base minimum rent increased 6.3%, and trailing retailer sales per square foot increased 13.9%. Management raised full-year Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.20-$13.30 per share and increased the quarterly common dividend to $2.25. These trends support a constructive operating view. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$199.00 Mean target$233.21 High · most bullish analyst$285.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $199.0020% The downside case assumes tenant stress, weaker retail demand, or higher financing costs reduce occupancy or force Real Estate FFO guidance below its current range. Simon's own forward-looking disclosures identify tenant insolvency, lost anchors, vacant space, interest rates, indebtedness, and capital-market disruption as material uncertainties. Base CaseCentral scenario $233.2157% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes occupancy remains near the reported 96.0% level and full-year Real Estate FFO finishes within the company's $13.20-$13.30 guidance range. Continued dividend coverage and measured capital deployment would preserve the investment case. Bull CaseUpside scenario $285.0023% The upside case assumes high occupancy persists while leasing demand, retailer sales, and rent growth continue translating into above-guidance Real Estate FFO. Further guidance increases or sustained property-NOI growth would strengthen this case. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |