Simmons First National Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Simmons First National Corp

SFNCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.94

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $22.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $3.3B

Enterprise Value $3B

Shares Outstanding 153.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) is successfully transitioning from a period of balance sheet restructuring to organic loan growth and net interest margin expansion. The bank's Q1 2026 results demonstrated solid execution, with annualized loan growth of 10% and NIM expanding to 3.84%. Management's guidance of 9%-11% NII growth for 2026 appears achievable, supported by disciplined deposit pricing and a stable rate environment. However, the stock is currently trading near its consensus 12-month price target of $22.00, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile. While the bank's 117-year dividend track record and 3.96% yield provide downside support, potential credit quality headwinds in commercial real estate and execution risks in a highly competitive regional banking landscape warrant a Hold rating at current levels.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$24.00

Mean target$25.00

High · most bullish analyst$27.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Intense competition for deposits forces the bank to raise CD rates, compressing NIM. Credit deterioration in the commercial real estate portfolio leads to higher provisions and net charge-offs exceeding 35 bps, dragging down profitability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The bank successfully executes its organic growth strategy, achieving the upper end of its 9%-11% NII growth guidance and maintaining a stable NIM in the mid-3.80s. Credit quality remains benign with net charge-offs in line with the 25 bps guidance. The stock consolidates and trades in line with historical book value multiples.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong dividend track record with 117 consecutive years of cash dividend payments, currently yielding approximately 3.96%.
Successful balance sheet repositioning driving net interest margin expansion to 3.84% in Q1 2026.
Robust capital position with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio target of ~10.5%, well above regulatory requirements.

Key Investment Risks

Exposure to highly competitive Mid-South and Southeast regional banking markets, limiting pricing power on loans and deposits.
Potential credit quality deterioration, particularly within the commercial real estate (CRE) lending segment.
Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and deposit remixing trends which could pressure funding costs.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net interest margin falling below 3.70% due to aggressive deposit competition.
Net charge-offs rising above 35 basis points, indicating systemic credit deterioration.
Failure to maintain the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio above 10.0%.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.