Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value $8.87median of 6 methods · middle span $2-$15based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $82.1M Enterprise Value $101.5M Shares Outstanding 8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. (SAMG) is navigating a transitional phase marked by the most significant investment program in its history. While the firm continues to demonstrate strong organic client acquisition capabilities—adding $688.3 million in new client flows in 2025—near-term profitability is heavily pressured by elevated compensation and general administrative expenses. Discretionary AUM, which drives the majority of the firm's revenue, declined 3.7% quarter-over-quarter to $23.1 billion as of March 31, 2026, primarily due to net institutional outflows. Although the firm maintains a robust dividend yield and is expanding into high-growth wealth markets like Atlanta and Singapore, investors should maintain a Hold stance until these strategic investments begin to bear fruit and improve operating margins. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$20.00 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.5015% The bear case involves prolonged institutional client outflows and persistent market volatility that further depresses discretionary AUM. If the strategic investments fail to generate meaningful new business within the next 12-18 months, the elevated cost structure will severely compress net income margins. Under this scenario, the high dividend payout ratio (exceeding 100% of earnings) would become unsustainable, potentially forcing a dividend cut or a suspension of the share repurchase program, leading to downward pressure on the stock price. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.5060% The base case assumes that Silvercrest's elevated compensation ratio (67.2% of revenue in Q1 2026) remains a headwind through the remainder of 2026 as the firm continues its investment program. AUM is expected to stabilize as market appreciation partially offsets near-term institutional outflows. Revenue will remain relatively flat, and Adjusted EBITDA margins will hover in the low-to-mid teens. The firm will continue to support its quarterly dividend of $0.21 per share, primarily funded through operating cash flows, while executing modest share buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0025% The bull case is predicated on the rapid maturation of Silvercrest's strategic investments in intellectual capital and geographic expansion. If the newly established offices in Atlanta and Singapore, alongside expanded distribution in Europe and Oceania, accelerate inflows into high-margin global and international equity strategies, revenue growth will outpace compensation expenses. This operating leverage would drive a significant expansion in Adjusted EBITDA margins back toward historical levels of 20%+, supporting further dividend increases and share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |