Silence Therapeutics Plc ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Silence Therapeutics Plc ADR

SLNNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.26

Intrinsic Value $5.28median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $10.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 51% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-51%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $665.7M

Enterprise Value $593.8M

Shares Outstanding 62.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Silence Therapeutics is a high-conviction clinical-stage RNA interference (RNAi) play with a highly validated platform (mRNAi GOLD™). The company's near-term valuation is heavily anchored on its lead asset, divesiran, which has demonstrated best-in-class potential in polycythemia vera (PV) by eliminating phlebotomy dependence in Phase 1. With Phase 2 SANRECO topline data expected in August 2026, a positive readout serves as a major near-term catalyst. While the company's cash runway is limited to approximately 12 months ($70.1M as of Q1 2026), its strategic pivot to seek a global partner for its Phase 3-ready cardiovascular asset, zerlasiran, represents a capital-disciplined approach that could yield substantial non-dilutive funding and secure long-term viability.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$4.00

Mean target$29.17

High · most bullish analyst$75.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$4.0015%

Divesiran Phase 2 SANRECO data is ambiguous or reveals unexpected safety/tolerability concerns, delaying or derailing the PV program. Simultaneously, the company fails to secure a partner for zerlasiran, forcing it to either shelve the program or pursue highly dilutive equity financing under its ATM facility to sustain operations beyond its 12-month cash runway.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$25.0060%

Divesiran Phase 2 SANRECO trial meets its primary endpoint in August 2026, showing statistically significant reduction in phlebotomy requirements and maintaining hematocrit levels below 45%. Partnership discussions for zerlasiran progress steadily, though a deal may not close until late 2026 or early 2027. The company utilizes its ATM facility or a modest equity raise to extend its cash runway, keeping the pipeline moving forward with manageable dilution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$55.0025%

Divesiran Phase 2 SANRECO trial delivers outstanding topline results in August 2026, confirming robust hematocrit control and a clean safety profile, positioning it as a first-in-class blockbuster for PV. Concurrently, Silence secures a high-value global development partnership for zerlasiran with a major pharmaceutical company, bringing in a massive upfront payment (> $100M) and eliminating Phase 3 funding concerns. This triggers a rapid upward re-rating toward consensus analyst targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Highly validated mRNAi GOLD™ platform delivering precise, durable, and reversible gene silencing in the liver.
Divesiran (TMPRSS6 siRNA) has shown exceptional Phase 1 data, virtually eliminating the need for therapeutic phlebotomies in PV patients.
Zerlasiran (LPA siRNA) is Phase 3-ready for high-risk cardiovascular disease, representing a massive commercial market with partner-driven upside.
Regaining global rights to SLN312 (ANGPTL3) from AstraZeneca provides an additional clinical-stage asset to the wholly owned pipeline.

Key Investment Risks

Limited cash runway of approximately 12 months ($70.1M as of March 31, 2026) creates near-term dilution or financing risk.
High dependency on the upcoming August 2026 Phase 2 SANRECO topline data for divesiran.
Partnership risk: No guarantee of securing a big pharma collaborator for zerlasiran's Phase 3 development on favorable terms.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of divesiran to meet its primary efficacy endpoint in the Phase 2 SANRECO trial.
Inability to secure a development partner for zerlasiran within the next 9-12 months, leading to severe dilutive financing.
Emergence of class-wide or asset-specific safety signals (e.g., liver toxicity) that restrict the therapeutic index of mRNAi GOLD™ candidates.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.