SIGA Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $3.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $240.7M Enterprise Value $123.1M Shares Outstanding 72.2M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Apr 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SIGA Technologies is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company specializing in health security and infectious disease countermeasures, primarily centered around its antiviral drug TPOXX (tecovirimat). The company maintains a robust balance sheet with approximately $145.6 million in cash and zero debt, allowing it to return capital to shareholders via special dividends (such as the $0.60 per share dividend paid in April 2026). However, SIGA's financial performance is highly variable and dependent on the timing of government procurement orders. While Q1 2026 saw minimal product deliveries resulting in a net loss of $3.5 million, management has clear near-term revenue visibility with $39 million in planned deliveries across Q2 and Q3 2026. A 'Hold' recommendation is appropriate as the company navigates lumpy procurement cycles and regulatory headwinds, such as the European CHMP's recommendation to withdraw the mpox indication for TPOXX, while continuing to leverage its strong U.S. government partnership. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case centers on SIGA's extreme single-product concentration on TPOXX, potential regulatory setbacks (such as the failure of TPOXX in Mpox clinical trials leading to potential withdrawal of European approvals), and the risk of failing to renew its core BARDA contract, which would severely impact long-term revenue visibility. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes SIGA successfully executes its planned deliveries of $13 million of oral TPOXX to its Asia Pacific customer in Q2 2026 and $26 million of IV TPOXX to the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile by the end of Q3 2026. This provides a solid revenue foundation of at least $39 million for the middle of the year. The company will continue to secure incremental international and domestic orders under its existing BARDA contracts, maintaining its profitability on a full-year basis and preserving its strong cash position. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case rests on SIGA successfully securing a new long-term BARDA contract renewal for TPOXX, expanding international stockpiling orders, and obtaining FDA approval for the post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) indication, which would significantly expand its addressable market. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |