SIFCO Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.80 Intrinsic Value $4.82median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 79% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-79%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $141M Enterprise Value $152.3M Shares Outstanding 6.2M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date22 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Nov 2014 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SIFCO Industries Inc (SIF) is executing a successful operational turnaround, driven by robust demand in commercial and military aerospace markets. Following the strategic divestiture of its European operations (CBlade) in late 2024, the company has streamlined its focus on core domestic aerospace forging. Recent financial results demonstrate a powerful swing back to profitability, with Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales surging 39% to $26.4 million and net income from continuing operations reaching $2.7 million. With a stable order backlog of $119.2 million and improved plant throughput, SIFCO is well-positioned to sustain its positive earnings momentum. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $15.0020% Supply chain bottlenecks or labor shortages in the aerospace sector limit production throughput. A sudden decline in military procurement or delays in commercial aircraft programs leads to underutilized capacity, compressing margins and returning the company to a net loss position. Base CaseCentral scenario $24.0050% SIFCO maintains steady execution of its domestic aerospace forging strategy. Revenue grows at a moderate double-digit pace, supported by the existing $119.2 million backlog. Operating margins stabilize in the high single digits, and the company remains consistently profitable, justifying a valuation closer to the industry average. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.0030% Accelerated commercial aviation build rates and sustained military defense spending drive higher-than-expected domestic plant utilization. Operating margins expand beyond historical averages due to successful pricing pass-throughs and structural cost reductions, leading to rapid deleveraging and multiple expansion. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |