Sierra Bancorp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $24.19median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $39.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $508.2M Enterprise Value $768.6M Shares Outstanding 12.8M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) presents a balanced profile of solid operational performance and near-term valuation limits. The bank delivered a strong Q1 2026 EPS beat of $0.96 (up 47% YoY) driven by disciplined expense management, an improved efficiency ratio of 56.45%, and a robust Net Interest Margin of 3.75%. However, a recent wave of executive insider selling in Q2 2026 (including the CFO and Chief Credit Officer) introduces caution. Trading near its consensus price target of $37.00 to $39.50 after a 40% rally over the past year, the stock appears fairly valued, making it a stable income-generating hold rather than an aggressive growth play. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$42.25 High · most bullish analyst$47.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $33.0015% Deterioration in asset quality within the California agricultural portfolio, coupled with intense deposit competition compressing net interest margins. Continued insider selling could further weigh on investor sentiment, driving the stock down toward the lower analyst target. Base CaseCentral scenario $39.5060% The bank maintains stable profitability with an EPS of approximately $3.72 for FY 2026. Net interest margin remains resilient near 3.70%, and credit quality remains manageable despite minor agricultural loan nonaccruals. The stock trades in line with its historical multiples, supporting a fair value near the median analyst target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $44.0025% Continued expansion of net interest margin supported by a stable yield curve, combined with mid-single-digit loan growth in commercial and agricultural lending. Successful deployment of capital through share repurchases and dividend increases could drive the stock toward the high analyst target of $44.00. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |